20 November 2007

Home Field Advantage Update (Week 11)

There are now 7 teams sitting at 5-5, that's more than 20% of the league. Therefore we decided to create a new category (and we renamed them too). We now have Heroes (winning record), Zeros (even record), and Losers (losing record).

After Week 11.

The Heroes (12 Teams - 37.5% of the league):
At Home: 48 - 13 (79% Winning Percentage)
On the Road: 39-20 (66% Winning Percentage)
Total: 87-33 (73% Winning Percentage)

The Zeros (7 Teams - 21.8% of league)
At Home: 21-15 (58% Winning Percentage)
On the Road: 14-20 (41% Winning Percentage)
Total: 35-35 (50% Winning Percentage - DUH!)

The Losers (13 Teams - 40% of the league)
At Home: 19 - 44 (30% Winning Percentage)
On the Road: 19-48 (28% Winning Percentage)
Total: 38-92 (29% Winning Percentage)

For teams with a Winning Record at home:
At Home: 67-23 (74% Winning Percentage)
On the Road: 48-42 (53% Winning Percentage)
Total: 115-65 (64% Winning Percentage)

For teams with a Losing Record at home:
At Home: 15-43 (26% Winning Percentage)
On the Road: 20-42 (32% Winning Percentage)
Total: 35-85 (29% Winning Percentage)

There are only two teams with sub .500 records who have winning records at home (Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings). There are no teams with above .500 records that have winning records at home.

Moral: You must win at home to win in the NFL.

16 November 2007

Week 10 QB Ratings

Ok, I am late. I get it. I have a real job, and it makes this very difficult. But here are the week 10 QB Ratings. (BTW, check out the comment on the greatest QB of all time. Excellent Analysis)

First, let us see who performed well in week 10.

Top 10 QBs Yards/ Attempt (week 10)
Name YA PA
Tony Romo 8.03 0.71
Donovan McNabb 8.00 0.62
Brett Favre 7.63 0.39
Marc Bulger 7.41 0.20
Drew Brees 7.16 0.28
Carson Palmer 6.92 0.00
Matt Hasselbeck 6.68 0.27
Joey Harrington 6.43 0.16
Kurt Warner 6.42 0.35
Ben Roethlisberger 6.37 0.17

Top 10 QBs Points/ Attempt (week 10)
Name YA PA
Tony Romo 8.03 0.71
Donovan McNabb 8.00 0.62
Derek Anderson 3.51 0.51
Brett Favre 7.63 0.39
Jason Campbell 5.80 0.39
Kurt Warner 6.42 0.35
Drew Brees 7.16 0.28
Matt Hasselbeck 6.68 0.27
Quinn Gray 4.00 0.21
Marc Bulger 7.41 0.20

So Romo, McNabb and Favre had big weeks, now we look at the cumulative standings.

Top 10 QBs Yards/ Attempt
Name YA PA
Tom Brady 8.49 0.641
Tony Romo 8.09 0.452
Brett Favre 7.28 0.262
Derek Anderson 7.19 0.400
Peyton Manning 7.15 0.295
Jeff Garcia 7.00 0.199
Carson Palmer 6.96 0.282
Ben Roethlisberger 6.95 0.498
Jay Cutler 6.92 0.207
Kurt Warner 6.90 0.293

Top 10 QBs Points/ Attempt
Name PA YA
Tom Brady 0.641 8.49
Tony Romo 0.452 8.09
Brett Favre 0.262 7.28
Derek Anderson 0.400 7.19
Peyton Manning 0.295 7.15
Jeff Garcia 0.199 7.00
Carson Palmer 0.282 6.96
Ben Roethlisberger 0.498 6.95
Jay Cutler 0.207 6.92
Kurt Warner 0.293 6.90

McNabb's performance against the skins did not help him crack the top 10. Till next week...

13 November 2007

Bad Metric?

I was asked why I presented teams above .500 and then compared winning percentages at home.
It could be a biased metric since we already know they have a winning record. An interesting comment which boils down to, compare the teams with winning percentages at home to winning percentages on the season.

Teams that have more wins than losses at home are 57 - 17 at home (77%) 38-32 on the road (54%) and 95-49 overall (66%)

Teams that have as many or fewer wins than losses at home are 21-49 at home (30%) 28-46 on the road (38%) and 49-95 overall (34%)

12 November 2007

The "All Week 10" team

Ok, so it's time to determine who had the best week for week 10...

Here are my nominees:

QB: Marc Bulger - Favre had a great week, McNabb and Romo both tossed 4tds. But Bulger gets the win here. Not because he threw 3 tds, and no picks.... But for his post game interview when he admitted that the Rams are still a very bad team.

RB: Brian Westbrook - I know his final TD was given too him so the skins could have a chance to get the ball back, but he still made a great play to put the eagles into the lead, and he still had three scores.

WR: TO - Reggie Wayne deserves a look, but his lack of effort early lead to 2 of Peyton's 6 picks. TO also added a second score, and his team won.

TE: Shockey - Pope grabbed two scores, and that's great, but Jeremy had 12 catches for 129 yards and a TD. And dominated as a blocker.

K: Shayne Graham - 7 FGs, and the only person to score in Cincy's winning effort.

D: Antonio Cromartie - 3 picks, 4 PDs. Win over the Colts...

There's no place like.....

When I played football (umm that would be high school football (for a winless team)) our coach would always preach (to quote Ray Lewis) "You must protect this house." (although we never did)

The way to make it to the post season in the NFL is to win at home, and split on the road. Going 8-0 at home is very difficult, but having a winning record at home is essential to making it to the post season.

For proof, lets look at recent superbowl teams:

Season League Team Home Away
2006 AFC Colts 8-0-0 4-4-0
2006 NFC Bears 6-2-0 7-1-0
2005 AFC Steelers 5-3-0 6-2-0
2005 NFC Seahawks 8-0-0 5-3-0
2004 AFC Patriots 8-0-0 6-2-0
2004 NFC Eagles 7-1-0 6-2-0
2003 AFC Patriots 8-0-0 6-2-0
2003 NFC Panthers 6-2-0 5-3-0
2002 AFC Raiders 6-2-0 5-3-0
2002 NFC Bucs 6-2-0 6-2-0

In fact, in those 5 season, there were 60 playoff teams, and only the 2003 Browns (3-5 home, 6-2 away) and the 2006 Giants (3-5 home, 5-3 road) had losing records at home. That's a 6.66% chance of making the playoffs if you don't win at home. Protecting the house is crucial.

Now that we can agree that winning at home is very important (or else you wouldn't still be reading), lets look at how teams are doing this year. The league, as a whole, is 77-66 at home, that's only a 53% winning percentage. However, no team with a winning record has a losing record at home.

Teams that have a winning record are currently 53-17 at home (75% winning percentage) and 40-25 on the road (62% winning percentage). [Updated: 11/13]

Teams with losing or even records are currently 25-49 at home (34%) and 26-53 on the road (33%). [Updated: 11/13]

Only three teams having winning records at home, and are not currently above .500. The Seahawks, the Cardinals, and the Ravens. Seahawks are 4-4 and are leading their division. The Cards and Raves are both 4-5, one game back of .500.

[Updated 11/13: With the Monday night domination of the 49ers, the Seahawks are now 5-4. So only 2 teams have winning records at home and are not above .500.]

Here's all of the teams.
Team W (Home) L (Home) W (Away) L (Away) W L
New England Patriots 4 0 5 0 9 0
Green Bay Packers 4 1 4 0 8 1
Dallas Cowboys 3 1 5 0 8 1
Pittsburgh Steelers 5 0 2 2 7 2
Indianapolis Colts 3 1 4 1 7 2
Detroit Lions 4 0 2 3 6 3
Tennessee Titans 3 2 3 1 6 3
New York Giants 3 2 3 1 6 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 2 2 4 1 6 3
Cleveland Browns 4 1 1 3 5 4
San Diego Chargers 4 1 1 3 5 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 1 1 3 5 4
Buffalo Bills 3 2 2 2 5 4
Washington Redskins 3 2 2 2 5 4
Seattle Seahawks 4 1 1 3 5 4
Baltimore Ravens 3 1 1 4 4 5
Arizona Cardinals 3 1 1 4 4 5
Houston Texans 2 2 2 3 4 5
Denver Broncos 2 3 2 2 4 5
Kansas City Chiefs 2 3 2 2 4 5
New Orleans Saints 2 3 2 2 4 5
Philadelphia Eagles 1 3 3 2 4 5
Chicago Bears 1 3 3 2 4 5
Carolina Panthers 0 4 4 1 4 5
Cincinnati Bengals 2 2 1 4 3 6
Minnesota Vikings 2 2 1 4 3 6
Atlanta Falcons 2 2 1 4 3 6
Oakland Raiders 1 4 1 3 2 7
San Francisco 49ers 1 3 1 4 2 7
New York Jets 1 4 0 4 1 8
St. Louis Rams 0 4 1 4 1 8
Miami Dolphins 0 5 0 4 0 9

10 November 2007

Greatest QB of all time?

This is a debate that can cause a lot of problems around the water cooler. Luckily we can provide you with some ammo bolster your argument.

We compared the QBs (stats prior to this season) with more than 2000 career attempts. Since sacks have only been an offical metric in the NFL since 1982 (http://www.nfl.com/history/randf/records/indiv/sacks), we decided to abandon our "improved" passing yards per attempt algorithm so we could compare every QB on the same basis. We also decided to utilize utility weights for each metric (all metrics were scale normalized: metric(i)/ max(metric)). [Note, because of how we merged the database, we actually made Bob and Brian Griese one person, sorry Bob.]

Our metrics are:

TD/ INT (weight .35) - given the qb throws a TD or an INT, the likelihood that he throws a TD.
TD/ ATT (weight .25) - the probability that a QB throws a TD given a pass play.
1 - (INT/ ATT) (weight .1) - the probability that a QB does not throw a INT given a pass play.
Comp/ ATT (weight .15) - the probability that a pass is completed given a pass play.
Yards/ ATT (weight .15) - the number of yards thrown given a pass play.

The utility weights are subjective (namely my opinion) and a sensitivity analysis is an important future step, but as the results show, either we've have more good QBs in the last few years or these statistics are skewed towards modern QBs. Which makes Steve Young and Joe Montana that much more impressive. Interestingly, Archie Manning (who gets a lot of undeserved credit since siring two NFL QBs) is ranked below Kordell Stewart. Additionally, players who are over rated because they had the best offensive line, best running back, and best WR in the game some how found their way down our list. Aikman is ranked 73rd. I am not sure why this metric is so skewed toward modern QBs. Any thoughts?

Name Norm Score
S. Young 0.943
P. Manning 0.907
J. Montana 0.880
D. McNabb 0.865
T. Brady 0.846
J. Garcia 0.829
K. Warner 0.820
D. Marino 0.818
F. Ryan 0.818
D. Culpepper 0.813
M. Bulger 0.809
L. Dawson 0.807
D. Brees 0.800
S. Jurgensen 0.798
R. Gannon 0.795
B. Favre 0.791
T. Green 0.788
M. Brunell 0.782
M. Hasselbeck 0.781
R. Staubach 0.781
R. Cunningham 0.778
N. O'Donnell 0.773
J. Kelly 0.768
D. Lamonica 0.762
N. Lomax 0.761
F. Tarkenton 0.758
D. Meredith 0.755
D. Krieg 0.751
S. McNair 0.749
J. Unitas 0.749
B. Esiason 0.749
D. White 0.748
E. Morrall 0.745
N. VanBrocklin 0.738
B. Griese 0.737
S. Beuerlein 0.731
S. Baugh 0.730
B. Jones 0.729
B. Johnson 0.729
M. Rypien 0.725
K. Anderson 0.724
B. Kosar 0.723
B. Starr 0.723
C. Conerly 0.722
J. Elway 0.721
W. Moon 0.719
J. Hostetler 0.718
J. George 0.718
A. Brooks 0.717
J. Blake 0.717
R. Gabriel 0.716
P. Simms 0.715
Y. Tittle 0.712
B. Kenney 0.705
D. Fouts 0.704
T. Bradshaw 0.704
J. Theismann 0.702
E. Grbac 0.702
C. Chandler 0.701
K. O'Brien 0.699
D. Flutie 0.696
J. Everett 0.695
B. Kilmer 0.694
C. Miller 0.692
K. Stabler 0.692
B. Hebert 0.690
S. Bartkowski 0.690
M. Plum 0.688
C. Morton 0.687
E. Kramer 0.683
S. Mitchell 0.682
D. Bledsoe 0.681
T. Aikman 0.681
B. Wade 0.680
B. Sipe 0.680
J. McMahon 0.679
R. Jaworski 0.676
C. Johnson 0.676
J. Brodie 0.676
J. Hadl 0.675
G. Blanda 0.675
S. Grogan 0.675
G. Frerotte 0.671
V. Testaverde 0.669
T. Kramer 0.666
W. Wilson 0.662
J. Schroeder 0.661
B. Layne 0.660
G. Landry 0.658
J. Kitna 0.654
J. Harbaugh 0.652
D. Williams 0.652
S. Humphries 0.651
L. Dickey 0.649
B. Parilli 0.648
S. Deberg 0.648
J. Plummer 0.646
J. Ferguson 0.644
B. Brister 0.641
J. Plunkett 0.637
J. Namath 0.637
K. Collins 0.630
N. Snead 0.629
T. Banks 0.629
M. Wilson 0.627
T. Rote 0.626
J. Hart 0.623
R. Todd 0.622
T. Dilfer 0.620
M. Tomczak 0.614
R. Peete 0.606
K. Stewart 0.605
D. Carr 0.603
R. Johnson 0.599
J. Harrington 0.598
J. Zorn 0.595
A. Manning 0.583
J. Kemp 0.580
D. Pastorini 0.548
R. Mirer 0.521

09 November 2007

Week 9 RB Rankings

Running Backs are an interesting sort. Most analysts say that it is the one position where a rookie can come into the league and excel immediately. Adrian Peterson (Min) might agree, Reggie Bush (NO) may not. Additionally, some systems make the back, Denver in the late 90s early 00s. So what is more important, line or back? Barry Sanders never had a great line, and he was great. Jamal Lewis, on the other hand, is proof that a good line can make a good back great. Also the running back has never been as diverse as it is now. Players like Brian Westbrook show that the "downhill" running back is not the only solution. The Giants, Cowboys, and Raiders have shown that a two back system can work. So here are the rankings. We look both at the classic RB in terms of carries, as well as the modern RB in terms of carries and receptions.

Yards per Carry is the typical stat for production, it's a good stat, no reason to reinvent the wheel.

Player Yards/ Carry
Adrian Peterson 6.557
Jerious Norwood 5.868
Brandon Jacobs 5.625
Justin Fargas 5.395
Marion Barber 5.350
Maurice Jones-Drew 5.305
Chris Brown 5.263
DeAngelo Williams 5.129
Ronnie Brown 5.059
Brian Westbrook 4.770

Points/ Carry is a cool stat that allows big play backs and goal line backs to be compared on an even field. We are not interested in how many yards it took to score, just how often the scored.

Player Points/ Carry
Marion Barber 0.360
Jamal Lewis 0.316
Adrian Peterson 0.304
Kevin Jones 0.304
Maurice Jones-Drew 0.293
Joseph Addai 0.282
LaDainian Tomlinson 0.271
Kenny Watson 0.270
Clinton Portis 0.238
Kenton Keith 0.237

Points/ Yard is a stat trying to determine who are the big time goalline backs. Not a surprise, Jamal Lewis who had 4 TDs and 37 yards last week found himself moving to the top of the list.

Player Points/ Yard
Jamal Lewis 0.075
Kevin Jones 0.070
Marion Barber 0.067
LaDainian Tomlinson 0.064
Joseph Addai 0.060
Kenny Watson 0.058
Clinton Portis 0.057
Maurice Jones-Drew 0.055
Earnest Graham 0.053
Kenton Keith 0.051

Total Production (or touches) are the number of carries + the number of receptions. We were originally going include drops since they had an opportunity to catch the ball. But we were to lazy to change our spreadsheet and find a new stat provider.

Yards/ Touch shows that Adrian Peterson is really making the most out of every single opportunity. Not only does he have the most yards per carry, when you add in receptions, Peterson is averaging 7.3 yards every time he touches the ball... Simply amazing.

Player Yards/ Touch
Adrian Peterson 7.306
Jerious Norwood 6.486
Maurice Jones-Drew 6.294
Ronnie Brown 6.272
Marion Barber 5.934
Brian Westbrook 5.920
Justin Fargas 5.824
Brandon Jacobs 5.512
Joseph Addai 5.316
DeAngelo Williams 5.218

Also interesting is that approximately every third time Marion Barber, Adrian Peterson, and Joesph Addai touch the ball their team gets a point. Or, every 18 touches they score a TD (again we don't give players credit for the PAT).

Player Points/ Touch
Marion Barber 0.347
Adrian Peterson 0.318
Joseph Addai 0.316
Jamal Lewis 0.295
Kevin Jones 0.258
LaDainian Tomlinson 0.257
Maurice Jones-Drew 0.235
Kenny Watson 0.216
Kenton Keith 0.212
Clinton Portis 0.212

Jamal's week 9 performance really helped him take the "Goal Line King" award. It's crazy to think this guy, before going to jail, had an opportunity to go down as one of the all time greats.
Player Points/ Yard
Jamal Lewis 0.062
Joseph Addai 0.059
Marion Barber 0.058
Kevin Jones 0.056
LaDainian Tomlinson 0.053
Clinton Portis 0.046
LenDale White 0.045
Kenton Keith 0.044
Edgerrin James 0.044
Adrian Peterson 0.043